Who leads 2026 Texas Senate race? Paxton vs. Talarico poll tracker

Texas U.S. Senate race write-in candidates A new poll shows the race for the U.S. Senate in Texas remains close. But that poll also showed there is a growing discontent with both leading candidates. The Brief Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, a Republican, is facing state Rep. James Talarico, a Democrat, in the hotly contested U.S. Senate race.Polls have shown the race is in a statistical tie.Early voting in Texas begins Oct. 19. Election Day is Nov. 3. AUSTIN, Texas - Polls have shown the hotly contested U.S. Senate race in Texas is in a dead heat. What we know: Republican and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton faces Democrat and state Rep. James Talarico for the seat currently held by U.S. Sen. John Cornyn. The chart below shows the results of various non-partisan public polling as reported by the Texas Politics Project and FOX Local. What you should know about this chart Each poll was conducted independently and may differ in its voter sample, methodology, question wording and candidate choices. Values between the plotted points were not measured. Apparent rises or falls may reflect differences between polls rather than actual changes in voter support. The latest point represents the newest individual poll, not a consensus estimate or forecast. Some polls included Libertarian Ted Brown as a response option, while others asked only about Paxton and Talarico. Candidate percentages therefore are not directly comparable in every case. Polls are arranged chronologically, but the horizontal spacing between points does not represent the amount of time between surveys. Polls with overlapping field periods are separate observations. Their placement next to one another should not be read as sequential movement. Where do they stand? FOX Local is publishing stories each week leading up to the start of early voting in Texas on Oct. 19 about the positions of both Paxton and Talarico on a variety of issues. Here's a round up of the coverage: Talarico vs. Paxton: Who has the better plan to lower costs?Talarico vs. Paxton: Different plans for Texas’ data center boomTalarico vs. Paxton: Who has the better approach to healthcare affordability?Paxton vs. Talarico: Where they stand on the border Featured article Paxton vs. Talarico: Where They Stand on the Border Democrats and Republicans have long held strong, differing viewpoints on immigration and border security and those differences are still apparent in the Texas Senate race, with Republican Ken Paxton known for defending the state's enforcement of its own border policies and Democrat James Talarico calling for federal reform. Previous coverage of Texas U.S. Senate race polling May 29, 2026: Talarico leads Paxton in first post-runoff poll of Senate raceJune 23, 2026: Paxton vs. Talarico: Here's how they stack up in the latest pollJuly 31, 2026: New poll gives Talarico slight lead over Paxton, shows governor’s race tiedAug. 7, 2026: New Texas polls show a tight Senate race between Talarico and PaxtonAug. 25, 2026: Senate poll finds Texas Democrats more energized as Talarico leads PaxtonAug. 27, 2026: Talarico leads Paxton as Texas voters rank affordability top concern, poll findsSept. 2, 2026: Texas voters split on top races, oppose data centers and Flock-style cameraSept. 14, 2026: Talarico leads Paxton in new Texas Senate poll, but race shifts among older votersSept. 17, 2026: Talarico, Paxton in dead heat in latest Texas Senate pollSept. 22, 2026: Talarico holds narrow lead over Paxton in latest Texas Senate pollSept. 23, 2026: New poll puts Talarico ahead in Texas Senate raceSept. 25, 2026: Talarico's lead narrows over Paxton in Texas US Senate raceOct. 2, 2026: Talarico holds razor-thin lead over Paxton in Fox News pollOct. 6, 2026: Talarico continues to lead polls as spending ramps up in Texas Senate raceOct. 8, 2026: Talarico leads Paxton among younger Texas voters, new poll showsOct. 14, 2026: Texas Senate race remains a dead heat as early voting approaches When can I vote? Early voting in Texas begins Oct. 19. Election Day is Nov. 3. Polling locations vary by county, so consult your local elections agency for that information. The Source: Information in this story came from the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin and previous FOX Local reporting. AI was used to help write the "What you should know" section of this story. ElectionTexasNews2026 ElectionsPoliticsNews